Bullish on Greece
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A retired teenager turned businessman and investor, Thrass Kalochairetas has a commitment to investment and profit in Greece and abroad.
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Sex and the Stock Exchange: why are the Greeks not buying?
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Σάββατο, 19 Ιανουαρίου 2008
19:49

An interesting week in Athens, don't you think? A wild ride and a sort of tap on the shoulder for all of us expecting a significant correction. After all in the current international climate, it would be silly to pretend any longer that Greece has turned to an industrial and financial powerhouse that can defy the Stock Exchange drops worldwide. In the States as well, wild rides and another down-week. No major intervention, so another field week for short-sellers .


Athens finally got an echo of what has been going on for several months now abroad. The abruptness of the drop (up to -4,11% one day) might have caught many by surprise but obviously some of us could see the numerical outcome coming for sometime. Two things I found of some interest. First, that ASE found itself lower than the August correction (intraday) but miraculously closed just above the lowest August close. Interesting and gives an idea why I avoid derivatives in GR. And yet, a new low is as ever, a new low. Athens is still significantly outperforming New York and I have found that whenever this has happened historicall;y, it did not last - naturally there is always the possibility that we may have a rally in the States to close the gap.


I think however that we are more likely to see lower prices here. I have referred to some of the reasons before, let me add one further reason: political uncertainty. I am pleased to say that I have my arguments have their own little contribution in the drop of private accounts numbers the last few months, from the private feedback I get, anyway. But I think it is the economic conditions more than anything that did the trick. Now, you may wonder why nearly nobody is buying stock that has in some cases dropped even close to half since the beginning of the year. The answer is simple: they think they can get it cheaper. And the bizarre story involving the sex-life of a high ranking Ministry of Culture secretary, a home-made porn DVD, blackmail, the Press and the Prime-Minister’s office just makes things stranger.


I confess on not understanding much of the story. I find the little that I have read repulsive and have no intention of reading more. But what is clear is that the rumour seems  to be that either the PM or people very-very close to him have been involved in some as yet unclear way in this story that includes strange sexual practices, blackmail of several million Euros, two attempted suicides, a major newspaper war, tax evasion and, tragically, the dream of nearly every poor Greek youth: becoming a civil servant, even at the high price of performing strange sexual acts. Spicy as it may sound, the important thing is: the Conservative Nea Demokratia ruling party has little outside the PM to show. It may sound sad, but it’s true. They have a slim majority of two (2) seats and already one MP has been involved. An even slimmer majority or the PM on the ropes does not make many feel the political stability necessary for bullish sentiment. We only got a stable Government for a few thousand votes and a lame-duck PM means that no reforms or sorely needed privatisations are quaranteed.

Naturally there was a little bounce following the steep drops earlier this week but am I tempted to leave cash and jump back in? Sure there might be some short-term life in that bounce with the following week having no particularly heavy agenda in the States. Is the bounce from oversold territory interesting? Not on the commissions I have to pay here. I'll wait. Additionally, I do not think I have seen signs of capitulation. On the contrary, the eight state-majority stocks I picked the day after the election back in September are still in healthy territory, grossing a nice +18,6% in four months. The so-called “peripheral” stocks I use to estimate speculative flows, favored by lobbies, irredeemable optimists and gamblers alike, have at the same time lost 27,6%.

  17/9/2007 18/1/2008     17/9/2007 18/1/2008
ΑΤΤ
3,76 3,86  
ΑΕΓΕΚ
0,65 0,49
ΟΤΕ 24,3 22,4   ΚΛΩΝΚ 0,33 0,24
ΕΥΔΑΠ 7,84 10,6   ΕΝΚΛΩ 0,3 0,13
ΑΤΕ 3,76 3,84   ΠΕΤΖΚ* *0,99 0,84
ΟΛΘ 24,02 33,3   ΠΡΔ 0,86 0,6
ΔΕΗ 24,38 31   ΧΑΛΥΒ 0,26 0,22
ΟΛΠ 19 27,8   ΣΠΙΝΤ 1,01 0,74
ΤΤ 14,5 11,32   ΛΑΝΕΤ 0,67 0,41
*Petzetakis was not trading at the time, I used the nominal price. There is no short selling for most stocks in Athens, so the prices do not follow the steep changes noticed in other markets.


In short, if the fund managers holding the relevant stock decide to sell, they will still be in rude profit for the state-majority stocks even after only four months. I will let the noble reader do the math on what this might mean for ASE if the downtrend in international markets does not stop. 

Add sex, politics and DVDs and you have one further reason why the Greeks are not buying yet.

 

Ever your friend,

 

Thrassos Kalochairetas

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Σχόλια

19/01 21:02  NEMO
Wild sex we'll see in Athens Stock Exchange in the next months...
19/01 21:37  Thrassos Kalochairetas
Hello Captain! Agreed, I saw you commenting that we are experiencing a correction of the 2003-2007 wave. Right?
19/01 21:43  NEMO
Exactly...
19/01 21:47  Thrassos Kalochairetas
Oooooops, do I understand correctly what that means?
19/01 21:52  NEMO
Depends from what's in your mind...
19/01 21:59  Thrassos Kalochairetas
Fibo is fibo...
19/01 22:03  NEMO
The longterm circle doesn't finished,only it's first wave...
19/01 22:55  Τριαντάφυλλος Κατσαρέλης
Generally speaking, there are two methods used in accounts :
1. FIFO = First In - First Out
2. LIFO = Last In - First (?) Out
20/01 14:14  Thrassos Kalochairetas
The important common ground is of course: first out!
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Greece is no longer experiencing a true renaissance in business and trading. The country suffers great uncertainty and the economy faces significant challenges. Thrass Kalochairetas explores the phenomenon and discusses the developments.

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