Bullish on Greece
A blog on business, economy and trading in Greece and abroad
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A retired teenager turned businessman and investor, Thrass Kalochairetas has a commitment to investment and profit in Greece and abroad.
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Will it or will it not? And if it would, should I or should I not?
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Τετάρτη, 17 Οκτωβρίου 2007
02:11

As we have just entered the second fortnight of October, historically the worst risk period for deep one-day losses, it turns out that what we were discussing last week was not that crazy. Despite widespread optimism that ASE can only go up -with 5600 within easy reach- the passage of 5300 failed. For now that is. What to do next? Will the Dow crash or not? And if I get a feeling that widespread optimism for the swift reach of 5600 may be overdone, should I talk about it? That was basically my dilemma last week -and to a certain extend now, although somewhat fewer people think nat present we are going straight to 5600- hence the pieces in Greek and English.

 

(graph from The Wall Street Journal)

I realised when talking with a friend earlier today that the question is however irrelevant for me. It is not even the right question to begin with. For the few who know my trading patterns or have followed me, through this blog, it is obvious. The profit to risk ratio is simply not appealing. I think it was mostly this that made me insist on the problematic side of last week when we were galloping. I have kept a foot in, as I said in advance, with saleable small banks close to their historic lows, MIG (not going south of 670 so far) and Alapis (fat gains insulate her from steep falls before the stop loss). Margins closed and 40% in - all on these stocks which I consider "safe". Let's see where it all goes to decide if I am going completely out or prepare to get back in.

For some time I have tried to convince my friends here that a fall is not necessarily bad. There have been few better times for 20 years to buy stocks than towards the end of session of Black Monday 1987. With cash you can make money out of a crash. Will we see a 22% fall in one day? I don't even think that this is possible any longer with new Wall Street regulations. But smaller dips might prove a sign of healthy future trader and raider profits.

The second half of October is just two weeks. Patience and care may not pay tomorrow. Call me old fashioned, but they may save your precious capital, which may be more important. The crossing of 5300 has failed -for now. Let us not risk further on unsubstantiated optimism. Let us wait: for the Fed (never fight the Fed) and the calming of geopolitical worries, local developments. It's just a few days - and if anything changes dramatically, or true opportunities arise, we'll be back.

Unnecessary risk is the first to avoid - any trader and raider should bear that on mind, especially while crossing the waters of the period that has been the riskiest on record.

Needless to say, I remain optimistic for when the rough patch is over.

Ever your friend,

 

Thrassos Calochairetas

 

PS. And least I forgot, Alpha-Bank. I nearly forgot since I have decided not to sell it -but to the highest bidder. I also still have some of the smaller mid-cap stock I have been playing withas well as token positions onwinner banks of weeks past, but overall they are <25% of the total.

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Greece is no longer experiencing a true renaissance in business and trading. The country suffers great uncertainty and the economy faces significant challenges. Thrass Kalochairetas explores the phenomenon and discusses the developments.

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